BusinessInsider To Amazon: Drop Dead! Hurls Ungrounded Speculation As Fact

We’re usually fans of BusinessInsider‘s sensationalist reporting, but a headline this morning was so far beyond the pale that we felt compelled to comment on it. The headline reads “Amazon Is So Scared of the iPad 3 That It Cut Kindle Fire Orders In Half

The headline’s implication is that as a result of the iPad 3, (AMZN) reduced a previously scheduled order by 50%. Let’s see the content of BusinessInsider’s actual post:

Amazon sliced its Kindle Fire orders in half for the Q1 2012 to 3 million units, according to DigiTimes, citing supply chain sources.

The cut is likely due in part to the end of the holiday shopping season and the upcoming iPad 3, which is expected to launch in February or March.

DigiTimes reports that Amazon ordered 6 million Fires in Q4 2011.

The report, source from DigiTimes, actually tells us that Amazon’s Q1 order is half of its Q4 order, and reasonably adds that it’s partly due to “the end of the holiday shopping season”. BusinessInsider then goes on to add that the upcoming iPad 3 is a cause, contradicting its source article, which states
However, the sources stated that the decline in orders for Kindle Fire tablet PCs is in line with market expectations during the off-peak season and the impact on Kindle Fire’s touch panel suppliers, including TPK Holdings and Wintek, would not be significant.
The Kindle Fire has been a remarkably successful product for Amazon. Yes, it’s not iPad.  Spinning seasonal production changes as indicative of “fear” of the iPad 3 or as unexpected may generate pageviews, but it’s not truthful.  Call us old-fashioned, but we believe, even online, that the truth should come first.
Update: Someone at agrees. The headline now reads “REPORT: Amazon Just Cut Kindle FIre  Orders In Half For Q1″, and the commentary saying is likely a result of the upcoming iPad 3 has been removed. The headline and article still state that this is an action Amazon just took and imply it’s a change to Q1 production, neither which claim is supported by the source article. The article contains no indication that it has been modified from its original form. Not cool.
Update 2: Business Insider has now added the correction below. Thank you.
CORRECTION: Initially we said the Kindle Fire cuts were because of the impending iPad3 launch in February or March. That is not what the DigiTimes reports says. It’s likely Amazon was planning these cuts all along. We apologize for the error.

Disclosure: Author holds no position in any stock mentioned
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Kodak Shares Worthless As Firm Finally Files Chapter 11

We’ve been warning for weeks that (EK) shares were too dangerous to own. finally made it

080809_Kodak_Tower_Top

official late last night and filed a voluntary business reorganization.  Citigroup will provide $950 million in debtor-in-possession financing. As we had stated, the company’s liabilities were to great, its ability to monetize intellectual and real property too slow, and its digital and other new operations not developing quickly enough to avoid this outcome.

We continue to believe that Kodak will emerge from the as a strong, but smaller company, having shed the liabilities that strangled it, having disposed of non-core assets, and having retained those parts of the company with the best prospects. It is important to note that current shareholders will not participate in this and that their shares are worth zero.  Inevitably in a bankruptcy, a robust market continues in the company’s shares despite the fact that there are very few cases when shares of bankrupt companies retain value(one recent example would be SYMS(SYMSQ)). This will not be exception to the rule. Those who own Kodak ought to sell and salvage what they can, those who don’t should not buy. Our sympathy is with Kodak employees, vendors and partners during this difficult time.  We hope that the company’s reorganization and eventual emergence in 2013 will remove the clouds of uncertainty and create new growth and new opportunities.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in

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Biglari Takes Another Crack At Cracker Barrel

Unchastened by his unsuccessful proxy fight for a Board seat at (CBRL), Holdings(BH) Chairman and CEO has begun aggressively purchasing Cracker Barrel stock once again.  Biglari had been held to 9.9% by

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

a rights plan which was voted down by shareholders at the annual meeting in December.  Free to acquire more Cracker Barrel stock, it was reported last week that Biglari had upped his stake to 11.8%. Now, a new 13D/A has been filed showing he has continued to buy this week, reaching 13.3% of the company, even as the price went up.  It’s not clear how much more Biglari will acquire, but one thing is clear- he’s not done fighting.  Biglari’s track record in unlocking value at Fremont Michigan Insuracorp, and Penn Miller is impressive.  He is underwater on his (CAW) stake, but was successful in gaining a Board seat. Hopefully, Biglari’s persistence with Cracker Barrel will pay off for his shareholders.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in and CAW

Eddie Lampert Doesn’t Fear Sears Bankruptcy, Personally Purchases $150 Million Worth Of Sears Stock

It’s been a brutal year for Holdings(SHLD) and a brutal year for Eddie ’s hedge fund . ESL has recently handed over shares of (AN) to investors, presumably to cover redemptions, but it looks like Mr.

English: Sears Hawthorn Center.

Lampert is not willing to part with shares of Sears. The WSJ reports, based on public filings, that Lampert purchased 4.46 million shares of Sears from the fund, and spent another $12 million purchasing shares on the open market.  In our opinion this is a positive sign.  That Lampert did not inject cash into the company by purchasing new shares, or by purchasing new securities senior to common equity, or by purchasing outstanding distressed debt, sends a strong message that he does not believe the company is at risk of or that it faces a liquidity crunch.

UPDATE: Redemptions were paid in AutoZone(AZO) shares, not AutoNation which ESL also owns a large stake in.
Disclosure: The author owns shares of

Don’t Be Fooled By Eastman Kodak’s Dead Cat Bounce

(EK) surged 35% today, building on yesterday’s gains. Investors were reacting positively to two pieces of news released by the company.  On Tuesday morning the company announced it was restructuring from three reporting segments to two.

Under the new structure, has reduced its number of segments from three to two – the Commercial Segment and the Consumer Segment – which will both report into a newly created Chief Operating Office. The Chief Operating Office will be led by Philip Faraci, who will continue to serve as Kodak’s President and Chief Operating Officer and by Laura Quatela, who was recently named, alongside Faraci, as President and Chief Operating Officer of Kodak. Faraci will focus on the Commercial Segment and the company’s sales and regional operations, and Quatela will focus on the Consumer Segment and certain corporate functions. Both individuals will report to , Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, as will the positions of Chief Financial Officer, Chief Technical Officer, Chief Marketing Officer and General Counsel.

“As we complete Kodak’s transformation to a digital company, our future markets will be very different from our past, and we need to organize ourselves in keeping with that evolution,” Perez said. “This new structure simplifies the organization, focuses it more precisely on our consumer and commercial customers, and puts the right people in place to capitalize fully on the tremendous technological capabilities of Kodak. These business structure changes also allow us to allocate resources more productively, continue to significantly reduce administrative costs, and improve efficiency. We are confident that these changes will support our efforts to make the most of our opportunities.”

This led to a significant jump in the stock price, but it is unclear why.  The company has rearranged furniture, but ultimately not addressed the key problem which is that the company needs cash now. While this change may lead to cost savings and/or increased profitability, it certainly won’t do so in time to help the company with its current dire situation.

After the bell on Tuesday, the company released a second announcement.  In it, the company announced that it had filed patent infringement lawsuits against (AAPL) and HTC.  The claims were similar to previous claims the company has made regarding infringement by phone and tablet devices of a series of ridiculously broad patents.  Interestingly, Kodak did not file any claims against (GOOG) or (MMI).  Kodak has been in discussions with all of these firms for sometime and been attempting to sell its patent portfolio.  This is a desperate, last-ditch attempt to force a settlement or purchase, but it is unlikely to result in any cash quickly enough to avoid bankruptcy. Despite this, shares were up 35% on Wednesday.

Mr. Market is in a manic mood and his bid this company up significantly in the last two days, but the common stock is still worth what it was before Tuesday’s open- nothing.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in any stock mentioned

 

Has The End Begun For Sears Holdings? CIT Stops Financing Sears Vendors

Holdings(SHLD) can’t seem to catch a break.  After weeks of falling, Sears stock rallied 8% today on no news.  Shareholders should cut their rejoicing short after tonight’s report from Bloomberg that (CIT) will no longer finance

2010 Sears logo

vendors for their sales to Sears. CIT would not confirm reports, but Sears spokeswoman Kimberly Freely confirmed the action in an email to Reuters

“We disagree with their (CIT’s) action, in fact we’d point out that other factors are approving shipments to Sears Holdings and CIT’s payables represented less than 5 percent of inventories,” Freely said.

Freely explained that “at the end of December, Sears had about $4.2 billion of liquidity, including cash balances of about $0.9 billion” CIT’s action by itself should not threaten Sears future, but if other factors follow suit, the situation could quickly deteriorate.  Sears is in the midst of closing stores and increasing its cash position, and should be in a better situation later in the year, if it can continue to operate normally.  Ironically, Edward , who controls a majority of Sears shares, also owns 2.9% of CIT, which lost 25% of its value in 2011.

We’ve written before that Sears needs to make major changes before its too late.  The company has continued to make important moves such as its recent hire of experienced merchandiser. Unlike Eastman Kodak(EK), the company has enough liquidity to turn things around, but time is rapidly running out.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in $

The Ghost In The Owner’s Box

Roy E. Disney

Someone at TheStreet.com has been spending too much time watching ’s Angels In The Outfield. A brief item this morning stated

Roy Disney, nephew of the late , would own the team as a private investment. The deal would not be affiliated with Walt Disney Co., which owned the Angels until 2003. The family has partnered with Stanley Gold, the man who runs the family’s investment firm, to lead the bid for the team. Gold, who is the chairman of Burbank, California’s Shamrock Holdings and joined Roy Disney in pushing out Disney CEO Michael Eisner in 2004, is said to be in talks with potential investors.

 

Mostly true- except that Roy Disney died on December 17, 2009.  Gold, his long time adviser, continues to manage , the late Disney’s family investment vehicle.  If the bid is successful, maybe they’ll leave a seat for Roy in the Owner’s box.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in

A Model For Kodak To Emulate?

We’ve written extensively about the once-great Eastman ’s(EK) slide to , but what might be the result of a Kodak ? What might Kodak, and the city of Rochester look like in 5 years.  Perhaps some answers can be found in the story of another prominent company synonymous with upstate New York city, , Ltd.  was recently the subject of a well-reported article at New York Times DealBook. There are certainly stark  differences between the issues Oneida faced and the issues Kodak faces.  Oneida did not face the disruption and obsolescence of its key products as Kodak has, but it faced its own set of challenges that were every bit as difficult.

What does Oneida look like today?

A third of Oneida’s roughly 450 employees still work at the company’s headquarters, a four-story granite building that stands across the street from the original house and doubles as a kind of living museum. Oneida advertisements from Life magazine and the Saturday Evening Post in the 1960s, some featuring then-spokesman Bob Hope, dot the walls of the office. A row of unused Kodak Carousels sits on a shelf outside the company’s in-house darkroom, long ago abandoned for a digital photography studio. Down the hall, a small group of model-makers hammers out prototypes by hand.

How did it get here?

Oneida’s financial problems were decidedly modern, and echoed the issues faced by companies in cities like Detroit and Pittsburgh. Starting in the 1990s, the company began to feel the heat of foreign competitors, who could produce utensils for a fraction of the price of American manufacturers. The attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, further hurt business, after the metal forks and knives Oneida supplied to airlines were banned on flights.

As its sales fell, Oneida hemorrhaged money — more than $157 million between January 2003 and October 2005 — and was forced to stop making flatware and close several facilities in Oneida and the surrounding cities, where the company had employed about 2,500 people at its peak. By 2006, the situation at the company, which in better times had been well-off enough to sponsor Little League teams, the golf course and other local activities, had become so dire that filing for was the only option.

“Oneida tried to hang onto its manufacturing facilities as long as it could,” said James E. Joseph, Oneida’s outgoing chief executive, who is stepping down this year as part of the Monomoy transition. “From a pure business standpoint, you could argue we hung on too long.”

A few months later, Oneida exited from bankruptcy, under the control of a group of hedge funds. Led by Monarch Alternative Capital, the firms moved swiftly — if painfully — to make the company profitable. They moved a distribution center to Savannah, Ga., to save on freight costs, closed stores and struck an agreement that allowed Robinson Home Products to distribute flatware and dinnerware under Oneida’s name. The hedge funds even debated moving Oneida’s headquarters closer to New York City to give it a better shot at attracting top talent, but eventually decided against it, according to several people involved in the discussions.

Those decisions stabilized Oneida. In five years, the firms reduced the company’s debt load to around $60 million from approximately $150 million. The company now turns a small annual profit of around $15 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to several people with knowledge of the company’s finances who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the numbers are private. Its North American flatware business gained 3 percentage points of market share last year, according to Mr. Joseph, and still has a valuable brand name.

If Kodak is to emerge from bankruptcy a healthy company, it, like Oneida before it, will have to dispense with sentimentality, find its new core competencies, and jettison everything else.  It’s the only way to keep the name of this iconic company alive and well for decades to come.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in any stock mentioned.

Consolidated Tomoka Makes First Tentative Moves Under New CEO

(CTO) announced two recently completed transactions, the first under the leadership of CEO John .  The first transaction completed the repurchase of land that had been sold to Halifax Hospital Medical Center in 2003 but never developed.  The company entered into agreement with Halifax in 2009 to repurchase 33 acres over 4 years, but purchased the final 17 acres a year early for $3,245,537 saving $75,000 by doing so.  The price paid represented the original sales price to Halifax, excluding the $75,000 discount.

At the same time, the company sold an 18,150 square foot building in Lakeland, FL that was formerly leased to Barnes & Noble for $2.9 million.  The building was carried at the original 2001 purchase price of $3.1265 million together with $471,500 in accumulated depreciation.  Albright noted in the press release that the company intends to use the proceeds in a 1031 exchange purchase.  Given that, the property to be purchased must be identified by mid-February and must close in the first half of the year.

After several years of inactivity in a difficult market, it’s exciting to see the company begin to move to take advantage of opportunities. The advantage of the company’s strong balance sheet is that it can afford to wait out bad times and buy and sell from strength.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in

Eastman Kodak Preparing Bankruptcy Filing- WSJ

Kudos to the for scooping the story that Eastman (EK) is preparing a bankruptcy filing and may file by month’s end.  The company is still exploring a patent sale to stave off , but it will be difficult to get adequate price in this distressed situation.  The company is said to be in negotiations for $1B in debtor-in-possession financing.  Kodak stock is down over 30% on the news- a stark reminder to those who have chastised us in recent days for picking on a beaten down stock that there is always more room to go down. will wipe out shareholders, but will provide an opportunity for the company to shed its liabilities and legacy costs, sell surplus assets in a controlled and organized way, and emerge with a profitable, but smaller operating business.  We believe the future for Kodak is bright, but current shareholders will not participate in its rebirth.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in