Has The End Begun For Sears Holdings? CIT Stops Financing Sears Vendors

Holdings(SHLD) can’t seem to catch a break.  After weeks of falling, Sears stock rallied 8% today on no news.  Shareholders should cut their rejoicing short after tonight’s report from Bloomberg that (CIT) will no longer finance

2010 Sears logo

vendors for their sales to Sears. CIT would not confirm reports, but Sears spokeswoman Kimberly Freely confirmed the action in an email to Reuters

“We disagree with their (CIT’s) action, in fact we’d point out that other factors are approving shipments to Sears Holdings and CIT’s payables represented less than 5 percent of inventories,” Freely said.

Freely explained that “at the end of December, Sears had about $4.2 billion of liquidity, including cash balances of about $0.9 billion” CIT’s action by itself should not threaten Sears future, but if other factors follow suit, the situation could quickly deteriorate.  Sears is in the midst of closing stores and increasing its cash position, and should be in a better situation later in the year, if it can continue to operate normally.  Ironically, , who controls a majority of Sears shares, also owns 2.9% of CIT, which lost 25% of its value in 2011.

We’ve written before that Sears needs to make major changes before its too late.  The company has continued to make important moves such as its recent hire of an experienced merchandiser. Unlike Eastman Kodak(EK), the company has enough liquidity to turn things around, but time is rapidly running out.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in $

The Ghost In The Owner’s Box

Roy E. Disney

Someone at TheStreet.com has been spending too much time watching ’s Angels In The Outfield. A brief item this morning stated

Roy Disney, nephew of the late , would own the team as a private investment. The deal would not be affiliated with Walt Disney Co., which owned the Angels until 2003. The family has partnered with Stanley Gold, the man who runs the family’s investment firm, to lead the bid for the team. Gold, who is the chairman of Burbank, California’s Shamrock Holdings and joined Roy Disney in pushing out Disney CEO Michael Eisner in 2004, is said to be in talks with potential investors.

 

Mostly true- except that Roy Disney died on December 17, 2009.  Gold, his long time adviser, continues to manage , the late Disney’s family investment vehicle.  If the bid is successful, maybe they’ll leave a seat for Roy in the Owner’s box.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in

A Model For Kodak To Emulate?

We’ve written extensively about the once-great Eastman ’s(EK) slide to , but what might be the result of a Kodak ? What might Kodak, and the city of Rochester look like in 5 years.  Perhaps some answers can be found in the story of another prominent company synonymous with an upstate New York city, , Ltd.  was recently the subject of a well-reported article at New York Times DealBook. There are certainly stark  differences between the issues Oneida faced and the issues Kodak faces.  Oneida did not face the disruption and obsolescence of its key products as Kodak has, but it faced its own set of challenges that were every bit as difficult.

What does Oneida look like today?

A third of Oneida’s roughly 450 employees still work at the company’s headquarters, a four-story granite building that stands across the street from the original house and doubles as a kind of living museum. Oneida advertisements from Life magazine and the Saturday Evening Post in the 1960s, some featuring then-spokesman Bob Hope, dot the walls of the office. A row of unused Kodak Carousels sits on a shelf outside the company’s in-house darkroom, long ago abandoned for a digital photography studio. Down the hall, a small group of model-makers hammers out prototypes by hand.

How did it get here?

Oneida’s financial problems were decidedly modern, and echoed the issues faced by companies in cities like Detroit and Pittsburgh. Starting in the 1990s, the company began to feel the heat of foreign competitors, who could produce utensils for a fraction of the price of American manufacturers. The attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, further hurt business, after the metal forks and knives Oneida supplied to airlines were banned on flights.

As its sales fell, Oneida hemorrhaged money — more than $157 million between January 2003 and October 2005 — and was forced to stop making flatware and close several facilities in Oneida and the surrounding cities, where the company had employed about 2,500 people at its peak. By 2006, the situation at the company, which in better times had been well-off enough to sponsor Little League teams, the golf course and other local activities, had become so dire that filing for Chapter 11 was the only option.

“Oneida tried to hang onto its manufacturing facilities as long as it could,” said James E. Joseph, Oneida’s outgoing chief executive, who is stepping down this year as part of the Monomoy transition. “From a pure business standpoint, you could argue we hung on too long.”

A few months later, Oneida exited from bankruptcy, under the control of a group of hedge funds. Led by Monarch Alternative Capital, the firms moved swiftly — if painfully — to make the company profitable. They moved a distribution center to Savannah, Ga., to save on freight costs, closed stores and struck an agreement that allowed Robinson Home Products to distribute flatware and dinnerware under Oneida’s name. The hedge funds even debated moving Oneida’s headquarters closer to New York City to give it a better shot at attracting top talent, but eventually decided against it, according to several people involved in the discussions.

Those decisions stabilized Oneida. In five years, the firms reduced the company’s debt load to around $60 million from approximately $150 million. The company now turns a small annual profit of around $15 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to several people with knowledge of the company’s finances who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the numbers are private. Its North American flatware business gained 3 percentage points of market share last year, according to Mr. Joseph, and still has a valuable brand name.

If Kodak is to emerge from bankruptcy a healthy company, it, like Oneida before it, will have to dispense with sentimentality, find its new core competencies, and jettison everything else.  It’s the only way to keep the name of this iconic company alive and well for decades to come.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in any stock mentioned.

Consolidated Tomoka Makes First Tentative Moves Under New CEO

(CTO) announced two recently completed transactions, the first under the leadership of CEO John .  The first transaction completed the repurchase of land that had been sold to Halifax Hospital Medical Center in 2003 but never developed.  The company entered into an agreement with Halifax in 2009 to repurchase 33 acres over 4 years, but purchased the final 17 acres a year early for $3,245,537 saving $75,000 by doing so.  The price paid represented the original sales price to Halifax, excluding the $75,000 discount.

At the same time, the company sold an 18,150 square foot building in Lakeland, FL that was formerly leased to Barnes & Noble for $2.9 million.  The building was carried at the original 2001 purchase price of $3.1265 million together with $471,500 in accumulated depreciation.  Albright noted in the press release that the company intends to use the proceeds in a 1031 exchange purchase.  Given that, the property to be purchased must be identified by mid-February and must close in the first half of the year.

After several years of inactivity in a difficult market, it’s exciting to see the company begin to move to take advantage of opportunities. The advantage of the company’s strong balance sheet is that it can afford to wait out bad times and buy and sell from strength.

Disclosure: The author owns shares in

Eastman Kodak Preparing Bankruptcy Filing- WSJ

Kudos to the for scooping the story that (EK) is preparing a bankruptcy filing and may file by month’s end.  The company is still exploring a patent sale to stave off , but it will be difficult to get an adequate price in this distressed situation.  The company is said to be in negotiations for $1B in debtor-in-possession financing.  stock is down over 30% on the news- a stark reminder to those who have chastised us in recent days for picking on a beaten down stock that there is always more room to go down. Bankruptcy will wipe out shareholders, but will provide an opportunity for the company to shed its liabilities and legacy costs, sell surplus assets in a controlled and organized way, and emerge with a profitable, but smaller operating business.  We believe the future for is bright, but current shareholders will not participate in its rebirth.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in

Eastman Kodak Delisting Notice a Non-Event

Lately, it seems like this blog is becoming all Eastman (EK) all the time.  Odd for a stock we don’t even own. Some Kodak bulls  have commented that we interpret every piece of Kodak news negatively, so we felt we should comment that today’s announcement that Kodak has received a continued listing standards notice from the is insignificant and should not factor into any appraisal of the company’s prospects.  There is nothing surprising about the notice; it merely states that the company’s average stock price has been below $1 for 30 consecutive trading days- something anyone with a calendar and internet access ought to have known.  It has no bearing and passes no judgement on the company’s prospects.

Kodak has 6 months to remedy the situation. By that point, either the stock will have rebounded above $1, or the company’s financial situation will be dire indeed.  We continue to think that is likely to file for this year- but this delisting notice has nothing to do with it.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in

Can Eastman Kodak’s Real Estate Save It?

A comment on a recent post asked whether we’d considered the value of ’s(EK) . It’s not something we’d given much thought to, but we’re friendly folk and so we proceeded to do a bit of digging.  Our first stop was ’s most recent 10K. While some companies provide detail on their real estate holdings, Kodak provides a bare minimum. Kodak lists $1.037 billion in Property, Plant, and Equipment, $664 million in the United States, and $337 million abroad.  It’s reasonable to assume this long held property is held on Kodak’s books at a significant discount.  The most significant piece of real estate we were able to find is the 1200 acre Eastman Business Park in Rochester. The park has 300 greenfield acres resulting from the demolition of 44 buildings. There are still over 100 buildings remaining, and 14 have already been sold to other firms, including the largest, a 2.1 million square foot building sold for $11 million in 2008.

Kodak is also nearing a deal to sell some space to .  The college plans on spending $75 million to purchase and renovate the buildings.  Kodak’s real estate holdings are impressively large, and given the luxury of time the company could conceivably raise upwards of $2 billion by selling them, but it would be difficult to realize a fraction of that in the compressed time frame the company is working on. Similar to the patents, which I believe have been the subject of overly optimistic valuations, the real estate will take time to see its full value realized.  Any attempt to move the real estate quickly will result in lower sale prices. It’s possible that if the company can monetize some real estate and some intellectual property quickly, that can be staved off for the time being.  However, management will still be faced with a company bleeding money that they have not been able to staunch.

Please share any further information you have about Kodak’s real estate holdings so that we can continue to refine our valuation estimates.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in any stock mentioned.

Another Eastman Kodak Director Departs, Fleeing Sinking Ship

, who had been a Director at (EK) since 1997, resigned on December 29, the company reported in a filing with the SEC.  Tyson is the third director to resign in the last week, and, as with the previous two, ’s terse statement gave no reason or explanation.  We await the spin form the bulls, who no doubt will explain to us how the departure of three directors in one week is a positive sign for the struggling firm.

Disclosure: The author has no position in any stock mentioned

Response To Critic Of Our Eastman Kodak Post

Recently, we’ve taken a dim view of Eastman ’s(EK) prospects.  As we wrote here and here, we believe the company is most likely past the point where a turnaround outside of is possible. A commenter assuming various names, most recently “Truthseeker”, has expressed his criticism in a most disdainful and discourteous manner.  While we object strenuously to his lack of civility, and may delete future comments that do not take a civil tone(though we will never delete comments that merely disagree with us), we thought we would pull up  his comment and respond to it.  We encourage dissenting opinions and we all benefit from civil debate.

Truthseeker wrote:

Are you aware:

Kodak has received $1B offer in rescue financing from bondholders
Kodak has $2B+ in NOLs to offset income derived from patent sales
Kodak still has billions in non-core assets to sell if necessary to raise additional cash
Kodak has mentioned it can slow its global digital expansion if necessary to minimize cash burn

Didn’t think so..do some research before jumping on the bandwagon bashing a 70 cent stock  ..where were you when Kodak was trading $80 and when you could actually add some value? Pathetic.

Unlike in his previous comments, this time, Truthseeker actually stated some facts together with his offensive and discourteous tone.  Where I was when Kodak was at $80 is irrelevant; I wasn’t publicly advocating neither buying nor selling. I write infrequently and on topics that resonate with me at the moment. There’s still $.70 more for this to go down, and my initial post was reacting to an unwarranted jump in the share price. Where were you at $80?

As to your claims:
$1B offer in rescue financing from bondholders: bondholders have no reason to preserve value for equity holders, especially since it means keeping pension liabilities. Any bondholder bailout is likely to be part of a restructuring that wipes out equity holders
$2B in NOLs- you need to profit to take advantage and company’s liabilities are greater than $2B
Billions in non-core assets to sell: What are these magical assets that are worth billions, not core to the business and losing money right now? The patents again?
Slow global digital expansion to minimize cash burn: Kodak missed digital. Period. Expansion isn’t happening. What would it mean to slow it?

This company has a bloated legacy cost structure it can’t get out from other. Like other legacy industries(auto, steel, etc.), it will require restructuring in bankruptcy to rationalize and create a sustainable business.

Disclosure: The author has no position in any stock mentioned

Map And Initial Analysis Of 79 Sears Closings Announced Today

Earlier this week, Holdings(SHLD) announced plans to shutter 100-120 stores. Today, the company released a pdf listing 79 stores to be closed, with more to be announced. I’ve converted this to a spreadsheet and mapped them

View Sears Holdings 12/29/2011 Closings in a full screen map

Of the stores closing 38 are Kmarts, and 14 are Sears Essentials/Grands, a failed concept which involved throwing a Sears sign on a former and hoping. This represents almost 30% of the remaining stores of this concept.  The closings announced seem to be concentrated in the southeast.  I haven’t had a chance yet to determine which stores are mall-based vs. freestanding, or to investigate ownership; if you have any information or analysis to add, please share it here.